COUNTED OUT

by Jos van Kan.

 
As W you hold at Imps, no one vul, in second seat
 
S: J864
H: JT5
D: AQT
C: 965
 

S opens 1NT, alerted as 12-14, your side passes throughout, N bids 2D: (transfer), S accepts: 2H:, N invites game: 3H: and S accepts with 4H:. You lead (rightly or wrongly) your 4th best S: and the dummy shows:
 

S: 72 
H: AK9842
D: J32
C: Q3
Your S:4 goes to partner's K and declarers A, who continues by playing AK of trumps on which partner throws H:Q the second round and declarer follows suit with two small cards.
After that declarer plays C:Q from the board, covered by K and A, she plays C:J and ruffs a C:. Now she plays D:2, partner small and she inserts the 9 which you win with the T. The position is
S: 7 
H: 984 
D: J3 
C: -- 
S: J86 
H: J 
D: AQ 
C: --
Questions:
  1. Who has D:K?
  2. Who has S:Q?
  3. How many C: did declarer start out with at most?
  4. How many D: does declarer have left at least?
  5. How many certain tricks does declarer have at this point?
  6. What card does partner need for the contract to go down and how do you defend?

Answers:
  1. Declarer so far has shown up with 9 HCP. There are two picture cards whose position is unknown: D:K and S:Q. Declarer just has to have D:K, otherwise he doesn't have 12 HCP
  2. And unless he's a raving maniac he also has S:Q, since he accepted an invite holding only a doubleton trump. So he figures to be in the upper bracket for his 1NT.
  3. Declarer cannot have started out with more than four clubs. If he had had five, his clubs would be good now and he just would have  given you your trump after which his contract would be 100% safe. This information, however, is only of academic interest.
  4. Declarer has at least D:Kx left, because he must have started out with at least 3. Declarer has shown up with a doubleton H:.  It is very unusual to have 5422 distribution anyway and open 1NT, but in this case it is not possible that declarer has (say) something like 5224, since he would have tried to establish Spades, not clubs.
  5. Nine. The 6 tricks he already has, S:Q and two trumps.
  6. S:T. If declarer has this card you are doomed, because you either have to give him S:T (by playing S:) or D:K (by playing D:). Since cashing D:A can never help you (declarer has at least Kx left) you have to hope that partner can contribute S:T. You cash H:J (just to be sure) and continue with a small S:.
The full hand:
S: 72 
H: AK9842 
D: J32 
C: Q3
S: J864 
H: JT5 
D: AQT 
C: 965
S: KT95 
H: Q7 
D: 865 
C: KT87
S: AQ3 
H: 63 
D: K974 
C: AJ42
 
Declarer was a bit unlucky on this hand (that is after the good news in S: and C:). As the hand lies she can make by playing a small D: to the J, but that works only against Q in W. What she did would work against either Q or T in E.
copyright © 1997 by Jos van Kan. All rights reserved.