Young con man.
		by Jos van Kan

'How could I have known' is an often heard cry of frustration after declarer
has wrapped up an 'impossible' contract because the defense went astray. But
Terence Reese says: 'If you slip up at the end of a hand, usually you missed
some inference.'

You are playing the Dutch ING Top circuit, an IMP (Butler scoring) Tournament
at which you can only play if you belong to the strongest pairs of the
country.

You play against a couple of Junior internationals and get in second
seat as W, NS vulnerable,

    S QJ972
    H K3
    D J3
    C KJ64

Dealer opens 1D, you overcall 1S. LHO doubles (negative) and partner
raises to 2S. The young whippersnapper on your right closes the bidding
with 3NT, to which you lead your SQ and dummy shows:


    S 83
    H J9876
    D A976
    C 75

which is greeted with some hilarity by declarer who says: "Nice
intermediates!"     
Partner takes SQ with the A and continues with S4, won by declarer with
SK. Declarer continues with DK, D2 to DA. On the next trick declarer
plays D9 from dummy. Partner discards ST,  declarer D8, you part with a
Club. On the next Diamond (7) partner discards a small club, declarer
leaves dummy on play as he throws the 3. You part with another club.

The next trick HJ is led from the board, covered by queen and Ace. Next
comes the fifth Diamond.

1. There is still one Spade out. Who has it? 
2. How many Hearts does declarer have at most?
3. How many Clubs?
4. How many points does declarer have?
5. How many tricks does declarer have?
6. Who has CQ?
7. Who has HT?
8. How do you defend?


















1. Partner took the first S trick with SA, played back a small one and
   in a later stage threw ST. This is only consistent with an original 4c
   holding. With ATx he would have played back ST in trick two.
2. Declarer cannot hold as many as four Hearts or he would have tried to
   reach a H game with his shaky S stopper (that clearly consisted of
   Kx.)
   So at most three Hearts.
3. He also has shown up with 5 diamonds. He cannot hold as many as 5
   Clubs (he would have bid the suit) so probably his distribution is
   2-3-5-3 or 2-2-5-4.

4. Declarer bid 3NT over nothing more than a negative double on the
   1-level, that promises 7-8 points. He has no extraordinary distribution. 
   So he has to have 18-19 points.
5. At this point declarer has 8 tricks: 5 Diamonds, SK, HA and CA.
6. Declarer has shown up with SK, HA and DKQ, 12 HCP. CA brings his
   total to 16. He just HAS to have CQ.
7. It is inconceivable that pard, who covered HJ with the Q would have
   done so without holding HT. Declarer burnt every entry there was to the
   table. So there is absolutely no distribution, none whatsoever, that
   makes covering without possession of HT the right play. 
   So this is a very strong indication that partner holds HT.
8. You have a discard to make from
   QJ9 K -- KJ
   and if declarer holds both HT and CQ you have no defense.
   If declarer holds HT and does not have CQ you should throw CJ.
   If declarer holds CQ and does not hold HT you should throw HK.
   So? 
   So since everything points to declarer having CQ and not HT you throw
   away HK for down 1.


Post mortem.
The full hand was:

   
                S 83
                H J9876
                D A976
                C 75
S QJ972            N          S AT64 
H K3             W   E        H QT54
D J3               S          D T5
C KJ64                        C T83 
                S K5
                H A2
                D KQ842
                C AQ92

In actual practice the W defender fell for declarer's con trick and
bared his CK. This gave declarer a couple of overtricks and a 12 IMP gain,
since E also had discarded a club in the mean time.

The astute S declarer was the Dutch junior international Marcel Lagas
from Bleiswijk, Netherlands. I'm sure we will hear more of him in times to 
come.

Copyright (c) 1997 by Jos van Kan. All rights reserved.